Use descriptive levels
Labels such as stated, supported inference and unresolved possibility can be more useful than assigning arbitrary percentages. They describe the relationship between a claim and its evidence. A direct statement may still be mistaken or deceptive, so stated is not the same as certainly true. The label tells you what kind of support you have, not whether a character is trustworthy in every respect.
Worked example: an account holder
A receipt directly states an account name. It may support the inference that the account was used, while the physical collector remains an open question. Giving the collector's identity a confident percentage adds an appearance of precision without new information. Describing the missing connection makes the next investigative step clearer.
Change labels when support changes
When a second record explicitly identifies the collector, revise that claim's label and record the new source. Do not upgrade unrelated parts of the theory automatically. In Somatry, this lets your understanding become more secure in specific places without creating a general feeling that everything about one suspect is now established. Good confidence notes show why a claim deserves its current status and what evidence would be needed to move it further.